Commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted as geopolitical tensions in the Gulf remain at a stalemate between the US and Iran. According to shipping data released on Monday, only a dozen commodity vessels transited the crucial waterway over the weekend, a sharp decline from 35 the previous weekend.
Before the conflict began, the strait served as the conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Today, visible traffic has dwindled to a trickle, though Middle Eastern producers continue exporting oil using tankers with their transponders turned off.
Kpler Analytics Insights
Provisional data from analytics firm Kpler highlights the restricted movement over the weekend:
- Sunday: Four trackable ships exited the strait—two carrying refined oil products and two empty carriers for bulk goods and gas—while two small-sized oil tankers entered the Gulf.
- Saturday: Five vessels departed carrying agricultural products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and fertilizer, accompanied by an incoming empty very large gas carrier.
- Historical Context: Before the US-Israeli conflict with Iran broke out on February 28, the strait routinely handled around 125 large commercial vessels daily, spanning tankers, gas carriers, bulkers, and container ships.
Saudi Crude Exports Bounce Back
Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco’s East-West pipeline forced the state energy firm to halt some shipments via Yanbu, prompting a strategic shift to increase exports through the Strait of Hormuz for this month and next.
This pivot has driven the OPEC powerhouse’s exports back up to over 4 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in September. This marks a strong recovery after August figures slumped to 2.4 million bpd—the lowest level since at least 2013.
What the Analysts Say
Kpler data revealed that a total of 13 tankers—predominantly very large crude carriers transporting 34 million barrels of crude—exited the strait during the week of September 13. Saudi Arabia accounted for half of these exports, with Iraq contributing 35% of the volume.
In a September 18 note, JPMorgan analysts observed:
“Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline.”
Analysts noted that total oil flows averaged 17.1 million bpd over the preceding 10 days, lagging just 6.1 million bpd behind the 2025 average. Highlighting the most significant shift, satellite data shows that Saudi oil transiting the Strait of Hormuz averaged 2.9 million bpd over a six-day stretch, a dramatic surge from just 700,000 bpd in August.
